The journalists on the editorial team at Forbes Advisor Australia base their research and opinions on objective, independent information-gathering.
When covering investment and personal finance stories, we aim to inform our readers rather than recommend specific financial product or asset classes. While we may highlight certain positives of a financial product or asset class, there is no guarantee that readers will benefit from the product or investment approach and may, in fact, make a loss if they acquire the product or adopt the approach.
To the extent any recommendations or statements of opinion or fact made in a story may constitute financial advice, they constitute general information and not personal financial advice in any form. As such, any recommendations or statements do not take into account the financial circumstances, investment objectives, tax implications, or any specific requirements of readers.
Readers of our stories should not act on any recommendation without first taking appropriate steps to verify the information in the stories consulting their independent financial adviser in order to ascertain whether the recommendation (if any) is appropriate, having regard to their investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Providing access to our stories should not be construed as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction by Forbes Advisor Australia. In comparing various financial products and services, we are unable to compare every provider in the market so our rankings do not constitute a comprehensive review of a particular sector. While we do go to great lengths to ensure our ranking criteria matches the concerns of consumers, we cannot guarantee that every relevant feature of a financial product will be reviewed. We make every effort to provide accurate and up-to-date information. However, Forbes Advisor Australia cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of this website. Forbes Advisor Australia accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any inaccuracy, omission or change in information in our stories or any other information made available to a person, nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further information.
Editorial note: Forbes Advisor Australia may earn revenue from this story in the manner disclosed here. Read our advice disclaimer here.
The stock market has often been called risky, volatile and akin to gambling, with the potential for high returns matched by the possibility of large losses.
Take the performance of global equities in early August. While the ASX had been performing strongly for much of 2024, it dropped 3.7% in the first week of August on the back of weak US economic data that sparked recession fears. It was the ASX’s worst two-day performance in two years.
Nevertheless, over the long term, stocks are one of the best ways to generate capital gains because they have the power to compound returns over time and generate wealth—especially if dividends are reinvested.
Experts believe the habit of putting money aside and investing in the market at regular intervals, not only engenders the discipline to save, but also offsets the kind of volatility we saw in early August, and ensures a kind of weighting mechanism to ensure a steady, average return over the long term.
Here is a run-through of what factors to consider while investing in stocks, and some of the best stock ideas at the moment in Australia and overseas.
Note: although stocks are essential to many investors’ portfolios, there are no guarantees when it comes to shares and it’s possible to lose your money, especially over the short term.
Many of the world’s most widely followed stock indices—including US benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the Euro Stoxx 50, and Japan’s Nikkei hit record highs earlier this year on the back of broad gains in technology stocks and hopes of interest rate cuts by central banks.
Companies have also managed to generate better profits thanks to price increases in the current inflationary environment, helping lift share values further.
There was some pull-back in April, but by mid-year, the ASX was looking up. On July 15, Australia’s ASX200 rose 9% to breach 8000—an historic moment—on the back of hopes that the US Federal Reserve could start cutting rates. It comes as Dow Jones also breached the 40,000 watermark, and the S&P 500 notched up fresh highs. On August 1, the local bourse finished at 8114.70 points.
As the Australian Financial Review noted, it has taken the local bourse more than three years to climb past 8000 points after just passing the 7000 level in April 2021, back when governments and central banks were attempting to stimulate the economy during the pandemic.
Nevertheless, the run of gains was interrupted by a burst of volatility on August 5 and 6, when the ASX dropped 3.7%, and shed $100 billion in one day, in response to US jobs data and recession fears. Few companies traded in the black during this period, although Bitcoin was hardest hit—down 16%. Banks CBA, Macquarie and QBE were all down by around 5%. By week’s end, stock markets here and overseas had stabilised, and the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished the week 1.25% higher at 7,777.7.
Note: The below list represents a selection of our top category picks, as chosen by Forbes Advisor Australia’s editors and journalists. The information provided is purely factual and is not intended to imply any recommendation, opinion, or advice about a financial product. Not every product or provider in the marketplace has been reviewed, and the list below is not intended to be exhaustive nor replace your own research or independent financial advice.
Investment research house Morningstar compiles a popular monthly list of best stock ideas based on undervalued (rather than cheap) stocks, after screening them on several parameters to ensure high quality. Some of the companies featured in its latest report include:
$2.85 billion
Consumer cyclical
$2.85 billion
Consumer cyclical
The analysts call Domino’s a “high-quality company with a long growth runway” forecasting a compounded annual growth rate of 24% for earnings over the next five years, largely underpinned by its global store rollout plan. The pizza chain’s sales growth has been volatile, though, and the share price tends to reflect near-term trading conditions rather than longer-term potential. Fair value estimate of $61 a share vs. current market price of $36.14.
$4.93 billion
Consumer defensive
$4.93 billion
Consumer defensive
The Chinese formula market is one of A2 Milk’s biggest, with sales rising 2%, despite a sector-wide decline in revenue. As Morningstar notes: “We forecast fiscal 2024 revenue growth of about 5% for A2 Milk and expect the company to capture more share as increasing premiumization partially offsets falling births in China”. Fair value estimate of $7.40 a share vs. current market price of $6.92.
$49.3 billion
Energy
$49.3 billion
Energy
Woodside shares are down more than 20% from September 2023, which Morningstar refers to as “materially undervalued, in five-star territory”. Morningstar cites the progress Woodside has made on key projects, including 62% completion by end of Q1 2024 on the Scarborough/Pluto T2 project and almost 100% completion on the Sangomar project in Senegal. Fair value estimate of $45 vs. current market price of $29.40.
$8.30 billion
Communications
$8.30 billion
Communications
Morningstar calls TPG “the most attractive under our Australia and New Zealand telecom coverage” with clear catalysts for earnings recovery on several fronts over the next three years. Benefits from a more rational mobile market after its recent merger with Vodafone, and cost-cuts from its current transformation program are the key drivers. Fair value estimate of $6.60 vs. current market price of $4.78.
$54.9 billion
Basic materials
$54.9 billion
Basic materials
The company booked a full-year loss in 2023, but so far 2024 has been a better year for the gold miner. While unit costs have been higher in 2024, increased sales volumes from the acquisition of Newcrest in November, as well as higher prices, more than offset these costs. Fair value estimate of $76 a share vs. current market price of $69.
While investors have a variety of local companies and sectors to choose from, the Australian market represents less than 2% of global equities by market value. Investing overseas can open up a much bigger range of choices, helping investors reduce risks and improve prospects for returns.
According to Morningstar, some of the most promising global equity stocks include:
Albemarle: Shares of the specialty chemicals giant have been sold off since the beginning of 2024 when lithium spot prices have crashed as battery makers reduced inventory levels. However, this was seen as an opportunity for investors to pick up shares of this high-quality lithium producer, whose cost advantage stems from its unique geologically advantageous resources. Lithium prices are expected to rise as demand grows and the market returns to undersupply conditions.
Baxter International: The medical instruments and supplies company had a rough 2022, when supply chain issues and uncertainty stalled Baxter’s growth. However, Morningstar thinks that Baxter will resume growing its dividend in line with earnings, adding that “the dividend stock looks cheap, trading 49% below our $67 fair value estimate”.
FMC: Crop producer FMC has grown to become one of the five largest patented crop protection companies, largely through its acquisitions. Morningstar cites its healthy cash flows, noting it also trades 46% below their $110 fair value estimate, however, the research house also adds: “While we think that the firm’s distributions are appropriate and that the company will generate sufficient cash flows to maintain its dividend, FMC faces moderate cyclicality risk and carries elevated leverage on the books as chemical crop demand is just beginning to recover from a cyclical bottom…”
Sirius XM Holdings: There is plenty to like about entertainment group, Sirius XM Holdings: the company trades 45% under Morningstar’s fair value estimate and its board issued a special dividend in 2022 because of company outperformance—although this is not expected to be repeated any time soon. First-quarter results were strong, and management is “pursuing a strategy for technology and content investment to drive growth”.
Polaris: Wide-moat power sports manufacturer, Polaris, had a disappointing first quarter earnings for 2024, but Morningstar remain bullish about the company, citing strong cash flow over the next five years. Dividend increases, averaging a 33% payout ratio over the next decade, are also tipped to continue.
Picking stocks is no doubt an intimidating prospect given that every major share market has thousands of stocks to choose from. There is no foolproof process that suits every investor because what is best for you depends on your individual objectives, risk appetite, amount of capital available, and your investment time frame.
However, focusing on a few golden rules can ensure that investors reduce risks while making these decisions:
1. Research businesses: Good stock picking requires diligence and understanding of the business you will invest in. Look at different businesses to understand what they do, who are the people behind them, what is the company’s track record, the structure of the industry they operate in and so on. This can often open up different avenues to invest. For example, while it may be expensive to invest in an established multinational firm, it may be cheaper and often less riskier to invest in one of its key suppliers instead.
2. Identify undervaluation: During periods of market volatility, stocks often trade at a discount to their inherent value due to cyclical or temporary factors. Look to identify companies that can potentially recover when some of these conditions change. This might involve sifting through all the beaten-down companies to find one that’s good quality. Once its margins return to average, you are bound to make a decent return.
3. Assess competitive advantage: Share valuations typically boil down to a few key drivers such as revenue growth, long-term margins, capital expenditure requirements and so on. It is important to evaluate companies on these fundamental factors to assess their competitive advantage. Generally, businesses with a strong competitive advantage can sustain high levels of profitability over time.
4. Understand risk factors: Investors need to be aware of risks and exposures that are associated with each of the individual stocks. For example, businesses with high levels of debt can be a problem, particularly if they also happen to be in a cyclical industry and have heavy cash requirements. This could also mean asking questions about when margins will recover, what the competitive landscape is like in the sector, or how a recession might impact the business.
5. Diversify risk: Once an investor has identified the various risk factors that affect individual businesses in their portfolio, they need to make sure these are diverse. For example, a number of sectors will be impacted by changes in the housing industry. This is particularly relevant to a top-heavy market like Australia where banks and miners make up nearly half of the index.
Investing in an index is considered a passive strategy since it does not involve any stock picking or active management.
However, indexing strategies tend to perform better than stock picking strategies. A study by S&P Global found that over a 15-year investment horizon, nearly 95% of fund managers failed to outperform the benchmark index. While passionate investors are often keen to dive into the market and bet on the odds of generating better returns than their peers, index investing has become a more viable alternative for retail investors, particularly with the growth of index funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) in recents years.
Experts say the best alternative for you will depend on your time commitment and level of market knowledge.
Index investing is particularly helpful for people starting out on their investment journey. As they build up a portfolio as well as their market knowledge over time, they can then start to think about investing in individual stocks.
Most people invest in the stock market with the aim of generating wealth, but it’s important to remember that stocks are one of the most risky types of investments. If a company doesn’t do well or falls out of favour with investors, its stock price can decline and investors could lose money. Entire indices can also fall sharply, as we saw with the ASX in early August which lost close to 4% of its value in a couple of days.
Nobody knows for certain how the market will perform in the near term, and often businesses are affected by factors beyond their control. For example, central banks globally lifted interest rates over the past two year, resulting in underperformance by high-growth as well as interest rate sensitive stocks.
If you decide to invest in stocks it should be based on your individual objective, time horizon and risk appetite. It’s also wise to ensure you have a few months’ worth of savings stashed away so that you can handle any unexpected expense without having to touch your investments.
What stocks are best for you depends on market conditions and individual investment goals. According to investment research house Morningstar, the most undervalued stocks at the moment tend to be in healthcare, mining, energy and consumer cyclical sectors.
No one, including experienced investors, can accurately predict which stocks will go up in a particular time frame. Stocks that are undervalued compared to their intrinsic worth have a greater likelihood of rebounding. Some of the stocks considered most undervalued by Morningstar at the moment include TPG Telecom, Domino’s Pizza, A2 Milk Company, Woodside and Newmont.
For the first half of the year, shares were performing well both here and in the US, despite a brief pullback in April. On July 15, Australia’s ASX200 rose 9% to surpass 8000—an historic moment—which was prompted by expectations of a US Fed Reserve rate cut. However, volatility returned to equities in early August when fears of a US recession prompted a massive sell-off and the ASX was not unscathed: it dropped 3.7% in one day to finish at 7,699 on Monday, August 5. By week’s end, the local bourse had partially recovered to finish at 7,777, but still some way off the August 1 high of 8114.70. You can read more on our ASX Today Daily Update.
The information provided by Forbes Advisor is general in nature and for educational purposes only. Any information provided does not consider the personal financial circumstances of readers, such as individual objectives, financial situation or needs. Forbes Advisor does not provide financial product advice and the information we provide is not intended to replace or be relied upon as independent financial advice. Your financial situation is unique and the products and services we review may not be right for your circumstances. Forbes Advisor encourages readers to seek independent expert advice from an authorised financial adviser in relation to their own financial circumstances and investments before making any financial decisions.
We do not offer financial advice, advisory or brokerage services, nor do we recommend or advise individuals to buy or sell particular stocks or securities. Performance information may have changed since the time of publication. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forbes Advisor provides an information service. It is not a product issuer or provider. In giving you information about financial or credit products, Forbes Advisor is not making any suggestion or recommendation to you about a particular product. It is important to check any product information directly with the provider. Consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), Target Market Determination (TMD) and other applicable product documentation before making a decision to purchase, acquire, invest in or apply for a financial or credit product. Contact the product issuer directly for a copy of the PDS, TMD and other documentation. Forbes Advisor adheres to strict editorial integrity standards. To the best of our knowledge, all content is accurate as of the date posted, though offers contained herein may no longer be available. The opinions expressed are the author’s alone and have not been provided, approved or otherwise endorsed by our partners. For more information, read our Advice Disclaimer here.
Prashant Mehra is a freelance journalist based in Sydney. He has more than 20 years of international experience covering financial news, including with Reuters and the Australian Associated Press (AAP). He writes about business, markets, the economy and investing.