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The US election has had a bullish impact on the crypto market, with leading light bitcoin surging in the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election and bringing many other coins along with it.
In early November, BTC rose to over $US94,000 for the first time in history, according to CoinMarketCap, which translates to $140,000 AUD for a single bitcoin. By November 20, 2024, it was hovering around $US92,000. This time last year, a bitcoin was worth a little more than $US35,000—which, at that time, was the highest level since May 2022.
Even certain meme-coins performed well post-election, with Dogecoin rocketing up over 150%, briefly trading above $US0.40 for the first time since May 2021. This was largely due to DOGE booster and Trump supporter, Elon Musk, taking on the role of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the new Trump Administration.
On global exchange Binance, the average bitcoin daily trading volume for the week after the US election jumped to about $US493 million, which was almost double the year’s average of around $US252 million. Volumes on rival exchange, Coinbase, were triple the year’s average during the same period at over $US108 million per day, while US-listed Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their biggest daily net inflows of $US1.43 billion dollars on November 7.
The election-induced crypto surge comes after a patchy year for digital assets. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved the first-ever spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July, but that development wasn’t the bullish catalyst Ethereum investors hoped it would be. The popular Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH) experienced extreme outflows in its first two days of trading.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin (BTC) prices gained ground in July thanks in part to expectations that a crypto-friendly White House in 2025 could lead to a renewed crypto surge. While that has certainly been the case so far, some analysts are warning that prices could just as quickly come off.
“Expect some confusion as even the most sophisticated and connected market participants try to parse if a Trump administration means a more balanced regulatory regime, a Wild West free-for-all, or if Trump will simply forget about crypto entirely,” Matthew Graham, managing partner at Ryze Labs, told Reuters.
CoinMarketCap is currently listing the crypto sector in the “greed” zone of its “fear and greed” index, meaning the market is over-valued and primed for a potential correction.
Crypto Market Performance In Recent Months
Bitcoin prices briefly dipped to a four-month low below $US54,000 in early July, but the world’s most valuable crypto bounced off that level and trended higher throughout the rest of the month. Bitcoin prices climbed more than 11% overall in July, finishing the month above $67,700.
Post-election the value of crypto surged, with BTC pushing past $US90,000 and staying there into late November. Ethereum (ETH) prices dropped 3.4% in July to close out the month at $US3,272 but rose to $US3,444 in November. By late November ETH was at $US3,118.
Bitcoin prices were up 61.1% by mid-year, putting the cryptocurrency on track for its second consecutive year of sizeable gains—even before the US election boost. Over the past 12 months to late November, BTC was up by 161.% and more than 30% of that lift occurred after the US election. Ethereum prices were also up 41.8% in mid-2024, which, post-election, has risen to a relatively moderate 61% lift.
The total market capitalisation of the global cryptocurrency market peaked at over $US2.9 trillion in November 2021 but took a big hit during crypto winter in 2022. The market cap has recovered to hit a fresh high of $US3.08 trillion as of late November 2024.
Spot Ethereum ETFs Debut
Roughly six months after the SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, the SEC formally approved the first batch of spot Ethereum ETFs in July. Investors have had access to SEC-approved Ethereum futures ETFs since October 2023, but the new spot ETFs are the first to invest in the cryptocurrency itself rather than cryptocurrency derivative contracts.
The following nine SEC-approved Ethereum spot ETFs began trading on July 23 in the US:
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB)
- iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA)
- Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF (QETH)
- 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF (CETH)
- Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH)
- Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET)
- VanEck Ethereum ETF (EFUT)
- Bitwise Ethereum ETF (AETH)
- Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE)
- Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH)
As of July 26, BlackRock’s ETHA ETF has led the group with $US354.8 million in net inflows followed by Bitwise’s ETHW fund with $US249.9 million and Fidelity’s FETH fund with $US180.1 million.
Julio Bedolla, wealth manager at LourdMurray, says the new spot cryptocurrency ETFs clear the way for institutional investors to dip their toes into the crypto market for the first time.
“This development allows institutional investors to gain market share and instills confidence that cryptocurrency can be a viable investment for everyday investors without the complexity of holding coins in a wallet,” Bedolla says.
“This approval is seen as a milestone in legitimising bitcoin and Ethereum as investment assets and is expected to drive substantial capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market through multiple spot ETFs.”
Kavita Gupta, founder and partner at Delta Blockchain Fund, says the launch of the spot Ethereum ETFs could have major implications for other altcoins as well.
“The launch of the ETH ETFs have been a major development for the space and will kickstart the next altcoin rally, despite the Bitcoin dominance we have seen thus far,” Gupta says. “Major traditional finance players are showing interest in launching Solana ETFs, signalling growing institutional recognition of altcoins beyond Ethereum and bitcoin.”
SEC, Experts Urge Caution
Crypto investors have cheered the launch of the new spot bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, but the SEC has warned investors about the dangers of cryptocurrency investing.
“While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot bitcoin [exchange-traded product] shares today, we did not approve or endorse bitcoin,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a statement back in January.
“Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”
While Trump is widely viewed as pro-crypto, and may replace Gensler as SEC Chair with crypto enthusiast, the president has proven as volatile as the digital assets he is endorsing. In short: anything is possible.
“The SEC appointment could trigger short-term speculation,” warned chief analyst at Bitget Research, Ryan Lee.
The Trump Effect on Crypto
The Biden administration has taken a somewhat harsh stance on cryptocurrency, overseeing an ongoing regulatory crackdown on the industry. Crypto investors and experts are clearly confident that Trump, will his light-regulation approach, will be less antagonistic to the crypto community than Joe Biden has been.
In late July, Trump underscored his commitment to ushering in crypto-friendly policies when he delivered the keynote address at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. In his speech, Trump pledged to support US bitcoin mining and ensure the US government would not sell its bitcoin holdings. He also pledged to create a pro-crypto Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council.
Trump’s close relationship with crypto-enthusiast Elon Musk has also helped spur crypto prices upwards, while co-chair of Trump’s transition team, Howard Lutnick, is a staunch advocate for digital assets. Many crypto bulls donated to Trump’s re-election campaign, and in Ohio, blockchain entrepreneur, Bernie Moreno, unseated Democratic senator Sherrod Brown.
Trump’s effort to reach out to crypto enthusiasts in 2024 is a departure from his previous skeptical stance on the industry. In a 2021 interview, Trump said bitcoin “seems like a scam.”
Other Crypto Market Headlines
Bitcoin prices have held up well despite major selling pressure from two specific sources.
The German government sold 50,000 seized bitcoins worth about $US3 billion in early July. In addition, a $US9 billion payout to the creditors of failed crypto exchange Mt. Gox could be an ongoing source of BTC selling pressure. In July, Mt. Gox creditors began receiving repayments of bitcoin assets through platforms such as Kraken and Bitstamp. These assets have been frozen for roughly 10 years after Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014.
Some investors are concerned repaid creditors could cash out 10 years of huge Bitcoin market gains en masse, potentially flooding the market with Bitcoin and driving prices significantly lower.
A new report from TRM Labs found crypto hackers stole $US1.38 billion worth of crypto in the first half of 2024, more than double the $657 million they scored during the same period a year ago. In the report, TRM Labs said private key and seed phrase compromises, smart contract exploits and flash loan attacks have been the most common crypto hacking strategies in 2024.
This article is not an endorsement of any particular cryptocurrency, broker or exchange nor does it constitute a recommendation of cryptocurrency or CFDs as an investment class. Cryptocurrency is unregulated in Australia and your capital is at risk. Trading in contracts for difference (CFDs) is riskier than conventional share trading, not suitable for the majority of investors, and includes the potential for partial or total loss of capital. You should always consider whether you can afford to lose your money before deciding to trade in CFDs or cryptocurrency, and seek advice from an authorised financial advisor.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will 2025 be a good year for crypto?
Predicting the state of the crypto market in 2025 involves considerable uncertainty. However, the general trends in the cryptocurrency market, such as the election of the pro-crypto Trump, could positively influence the crypto market, making 2025 a potentially favourable year for cryptocurrencies.
Analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein think a number of factors could drive Bitcoin’s price to a target of $US200,000 by the end of 2025, owing to the advancement of crypto proponents in the incoming Administration.
Nevertheless, while crypto is surging in the aftermath of the US election, CoinMarketCap’s fear and greed index has the crypto market at “extreme greed” as of November 20, 2024, meaning the sector is over-valued and could be ripe for a correction.
How much will Ethereum be worth in 2025?
Predicting the exact value of Ethereum in 2025 is challenging due to the volatile and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market. However, Ethereum’s value could be influenced by several factors, including technological advancements, market adoption, regulatory changes, and the potential impact of Bitcoin’s market movements, such as the US election result.
How much will One Ethereum be worth in 2030?
Forecasting Ethereum’s price in 2030 is highly speculative. The value of Ethereum will depend on many factors, including technological developments within the Ethereum network, overall market trends, regulatory environment, performance of crypto-related ETFs and its adoption rate in various applications. Long-term predictions are inherently uncertain in the rapidly evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies.
